Platform supporting operational decisions dependent on a state of an atmosphere (PROZA)

The weather conditions in Poland are subject to frequent and strong fluctuations at different time scales (several days or between years).Climatological forecasts indicate that the observed warming rate and amplitude changes in the weather in Poland will grow, with a tendency to increasing prevalence of extreme events (droughts, floods, tornadoes, etc.).Such climate changes will adversely affect the weather-dependent economic sectors such as forestry, agriculture, energy and transport. On the other hand, the development of numerical methods for weather forecasting allows to predict the state of the atmosphere on the scale of several days of ever increasing accuracy. The development of computing power and development of forecasting models has caused that the performance of accurate, localized weather forecasts kilometer resolution is the task of operationally executable on the hardware available in mid-sized computing centers. The development of network technology has facilitated the provision of forecasts to interested parties. The development of electronics has caused  that it became practical to install a relatively advanced meteorological stations in each customer forecasts. Thus it became possible to build a personalized prognostic systems, revised by a typical local error estimates to predict the local course of meteorological phenomena.

In a view of the observed climate warming is increasing the amount of violent, anomalous weather phenomena. The project aims to develop solutions that on the one hand will significantly minimize the risk of losses in the economy resulting from weather conditions (agriculture, forestry, maritime transport) and on the other hand will allow planning and optimizing the costs associated with the weather (energy, agriculture, maritime economy) .
Project implementation will allow to reduce losses in the forestry by about 5-10%.

The issue of forestry in the project covers a broad spectrum of issues relating to the forest fire protection, silviculture and the forest protection. For this purpose, 4 independent research topics have been isolated: “The use of numerical weather prediction models to predict the moisture content of the forest”, “The use of satellite observation and remote results of NWP forecast models for monitoring and forecasting of the forest fire risk”, ” Determination of the risk degree of stands in different regions of the country by abiotic factors using numerical weather prediction models” and  “Forecasting the occurrence of fungal diseases and insect pests of the main forest-forming species of trees and changes in the risk factors by these forests, in anticipation of global warming”.

The results obtained in the project will be provided to the all concerned social and economic entities using different mechanisms, depending on the specific audience.
In the case of forestry, a major recipient will be the State Forests Holding, which manages the majority of forest areas in Poland.  In particular, the guidelines and the  recommendations for forest management, which will be published and publicly available.