Metoda oceny wielkoobszarowego zagrożenia pożarowego lasów w Polsce na podstawie przewidywanych zmian wilgotności ściółki sosnowej
A method of assessing large-area forest fire risk in Poland based on predicted changes in the pine litter humidity
Autorzy
- Hanna Sakowska Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego,Wydział Leśny, Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warszawa, e-mail: hanna_sakowska@sggw.pl
Abstrakt
The developed method is an extension of the capabilities of the existing forest fire risk monitoring system in Poland. The analysis of data obtained during the monitoring of fire risk in individual prognostic zones in the years 1991–2000 showed the possibility of determining the trends of changes in forest fire risk both in specific zones and throughout the country. A statistical analysis of the most flammable period of the 1990s, i.e. 1992–1996 enabled to estimate litter humidity and to predict the forest fire risk based on the anticipated meteorological conditions and relative air humidity. After the completion of the significance analysis of the impact of the studied factors on litter humidity, the formulas were developed to calculate it taking into consideration atmospheric precipitation, air humidity and air temperature.
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