Conversion simulation of spruce stands in the Bieszczady Mountains with the aid of FORKOME model
A computer model FORKOME was applicated for simulation of Picea abies L. Karst. stands conversion in the Bieszczady Mountains. The model was used to forecast 9 conversion scenarios of the time span of 100 years. The simulation results indicated that in the artificial spruce stands on post-agriculture land the spontaneous natural succession occurs causing the change of spruce dominated forests into beech-fir ones, adequate to the local conditions. Cutting of spruces accelerated the succession speed, enabling more intensive growth of biomass and the number of target trees and earlier shift of domination in the stand. In the scenario of cutting all trees over 2 cm d.b.h. in the first year of simulation the model predicts intensive increase of beech biomass up to 500 t/ha after 90th year of forecast. Leaving two greatest spruces provide required shelter for growing seedlings. Introduction of seedlings of target tree species caused the increase of their biomass. In the scenario of climate worming decline of spruce biomass and increase of beech one was noticed in the last decades of forecast, compare to the control climate conditions. In the scenario of climate cooling the spruce biomass increased during investigated time span of 100 years. The application of FORKOME model was found useful to analyze the potential scenarios of spruce stands conversion in the Bieszczady Mountains. Obtained results indicated that restructuring is most beneficial to beech, so is the climate worming.
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